Human Choices And Global Warming
Can You Predict How Society Will Change in the 21st Century?
Social scientists acknowledge that future societal changes are difficult to predict. So, they have developed many different scenarios that policy-makers can use to see the range of changes that are possible. Some examples can be seen in the movies below. Their impact on surface temperature is estimated by computer models. None of these scenarios include policies specifically aimed at reducing CO2 emissions.
Five Possible Futures
[Download Quicktime for viewing movies]
| |
Population Growth |
Economic Growth |
Technology Growth |
Scenario 1:
(2.3 MB) |
Fast |
Fast |
Fast
(emphasis on fossil fuels) |
Scenario 2:
(2.4 MB) |
Fast |
Slow |
Slow |
Scenario 3:
(2.5 MB) |
Fast |
Fast |
Fast |
Scenario 4:
(2.1 MB) |
Slow |
Moderate |
Slow |
Scenario 5:
(535 KB) |
Fast |
Moderate |
Fast |
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), United Nations, 2001 |
Note: CO2 emissions would have to be reduced by about 75% initially and gradually by more simply to maintain the concentration found in the atmosphere today. Full implementation of the Kyoto Protocol would reduce emissions in 2010 by about 8% compared to business-as-usual.
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